The day after. Τό όραμα αναλυτών στούς ΝΥΤ, για τό τί θα γινόταν εάν η ελληνική κυβέρνηση μιά (γλυκιά) Παρασκευή απόγευμα έπαιρνε τήν (τρελή, αυτοκτονική) απόφαση να γυρίσει στη δραχμή...

Η Ελλάδα δέν είναι κράτος - παρίας...
Είναι ενταγμένη στό δυτικό σύστημα ασφάλειας και θέλει να παραμείνει εκεί γιαυτό και συμπεριφέρεται ανάλογα...
Τί θα γινόταν όμως εάν δέν ήταν έτσι?
Τί θα γινόταν εάν ο Γιώργος έπαιρνε τήν τρελή απόφαση να ανατινάξει (αυτοκτονήσει) τη χώρα, παίρνοντας μαζί όσους πιό πολλούς μπορούσε?
Σημειώστε ότι τό χρέος τής Ελλάδας είναι μικρό...
Η παγκόσμια κοινότητα θα μπορούσε να το ξοφλήσει με τα ψιλά της...
Εν τούτοις θα πρέπει να τηρούνται και οι νόμοι...
Σωστό....
Να τηρούνται οι νόμοι όχι να τιμωρούνται οι λαοί...
Εν πάσει περιπτώσει εάν ο Γιώργος αποφάσιζε να ανατινάξει τό σύγχρονο Κούγκι θα έκανε κάτι πολύ απλό....
Μιά γλυκιά Παρασκευή απόγευμα θα ανακοίνωνε πχ απο το Καστελόριζο ότι η Ελλάδα εγκαταλείπει τήν ευρώπη , επειδή η διάσωση πού προτείνεται δέν έχει νόημα εφόσον εξαθλιώνει τον ελληνικό λαό (ενώ θα έπρεπε απλά να υπάρξει προσαρμογή του), και γυρίζει στη δραχμή (έτσι, μετατρέποντας το χρέος σέ δραχμές θα έλυνε το πρόβλημα χρέους τής χώρας)...
Οι δραχμές θα μπορούσαν να έχουν ήδη τυπωθεί...
Αυτό βέβαια θα σήμαινε ότι οι λαοί τουλάχιστον τριών χωρών (Ισπανία , Πορτογαλία , Ιταλία) θα έτρεχαν στα ATM όλο το Σ/Κ να σηκώσουν τα ευρώ τους, στη λογική ότι αφού το έκαναν οι Ελληνες μάλλον θα το κάνουμε και εμείς...
Μάλιστα θα έκαναν και κάτι άλλο...
Μέσω ιντερνετ όλο το Σ/Κ θα μετέφεραν τα χρήματά τους σέ ασφαλείς τράπεζες...
Δηλαδή?
Ποιές θα ήταν τότε οι ασφαλείς τράπεζες...
Οι γερμανικές?
Μπά...
Εκτεθειμένες είναι και αυτές...
Γιά τίς υπόλοιπες τής ευρώπης ας μήν συζητήσουμε κάν...
Δέν χρειάζεται να συνεχίσουμε...





Κάπως έτσι θα ήταν η day after για τήν ευρώπη (μπορείτε να προσθέσετε με τη φαντασία σας ανατριχιαστικές λεπτομέρειες)...
Φυσικά τό εν λόγω όραμα (πού δημοσιεύεται σήμερα στούς ΝΥΤ http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/business/global/how-greece-could-escape-the-euro.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=world ) δέν αναφέρεται καθόλου στη μοίρα τής Ελλάδας μετά απο όλο αυτό...
Υπάρχουν κάποιες ιδέες αλλά καλύτερα να μην τις πούμε...
Πάντως καλύτερα να σχολείται κανείς με τήν day before παρά με την day after...
Καλύτερα να είμαστε όλοι σοβαροί...
Ακόμα και οι ΝΥΤ...

Δείτε και το αντίστοιχο κείμενο
..........The Argentine experience was not pretty, but it may well be more attractive than the seemingly endless rounds of austerity, strikes and missed fiscal targets that seem to be leaving the Greek economy in a permanent recession. From the Greek perspective, the course could seem attractive.

There are some important differences, of course. Argentina had a currency that still existed, and there were peso notes. There are no drachma notes floating around Athens or anywhere else. If the drachma suddenly became the legal currency again, currency would be needed. Printing new notes in secret would be a challenge.

Would the bond switch be legal? For some bonds, clearly it would not be. British courts “would enter judgments saying Greece owes x billion euros,” said Whitney Debevoise, a lawyer with Arnold & Porter, “but would then have to find assets.”

But British courts would have jurisdiction only over the minority of bonds issued under British law. Most Greek bonds were issued under Greek law, and presumably Greece can change that law to legalize what it does. Greek bonds already trade for less than 40 percent of face value, so it is possible that their actual value might not decline all that much, assuming investors believed the drachmas would be repaid.

Greece would suddenly be forced to run a balanced budget, or to borrow from its own citizens, whose savings would have lost much, if not most, of their value.

For Greece to pull that off, it would probably have to do it over a weekend, without leaks of what it was planning. If people got wind of what might be coming, there would be an immediate run on Greek banks.
When Argentina did it, there was no immediate ripple effect. But in Europe the result would very likely be explosive. There would be a run on banks in peripheral countries. If Greece can do it, what about Portugal, or Spain, or Italy?

Mr. Hempton has a vision of what rational people in the peripheral countries would do as soon as they heard about the Greek move. “Max all your credit cards for cash, draw all your bank deposits” and drive to somewhere safe. Money would pour into banks in Germany.

Or maybe not. German banks would have a lot of assets that were suddenly worth less, particularly if other countries did follow Greece. Owing euros to depositors, and getting devalued drachmas, or lire, or escudos, or pesetas from borrowers is one way to make capital vanish.

None of this is made any easier by the fact that in the old days to have a run on a bank you needed to show up at an office during banking hours. When the Austro-Hungarian empire collapsed after World War I, countries stamped the old currency to convert it into their currencies and stopped people at borders to search for cash. Now we live in a world of wired money. Most money is not in bills or coins but in bank deposits that can be moved halfway around the world nearly instantly. Border guards might not be much help.

In other words, Greece would fare poorly if it tried the Argentine strategy, but would have hope for recovery. But it might be impossible to halt the crisis for the rest of Europe.

Which brings us back to what is going on now.

European leaders hold meetings — this week in Luxembourg, next month in Cannes — at which they say they are determined to deal with the problem but seem to be unable to do much. The July 21 agreement for a new bailout of Greece is nearing ratification by all the euro area governments but seems woefully out of date. Greece’s fiscal situation is growing worse, so it cannot meet its deficit targets. Some politicians want banks to take bigger losses than the July deal envisaged, but bank regulators are afraid of what would happen as a result. Greece remains woefully uncompetitive in export markets, and there is no credible plan to get its economy growing. The rest of Europe uses the threat of cutting off funds to force more and more austerity on the Greek government.

Many Greek citizens are acting as if there really is no need for all that austerity. There was a one-day general strike on Wednesday, with 20,000 marchers reported on the streets of Athens. The tax collectors, of all people, have staged job actions because they fear being laid off. To say the least, there is no sign of a national spirit of sacrifice to save the country.

The message from Greece now may be summarized as, “I’m small. I’ve suffered. You can afford to rescue me. If you don’t, I can create chaos for all of you.”

They may be right.




http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/business/global/how-greece-could-escape-the-euro.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=world